— INSIGHT / FORECAST CONSTRUCTION
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The final forecast is not the first number. It is the number that survives correction.

A disciplined probability engine should be able to explain how it moved from raw scenario output to a final probability that is less inflated, less fragile, and more defensible. The numbers on this page are illustrative, included to show the shape of the correction logic.

— Main correction flow

Correction waterfall, diagram form

Raw aggregateScenario-weightedoutput41%Overlapcluster discount−12 ptsFragilitybounded skepticism−9 ptsFinal forecastAfter correctionand calibration20%
A robust forecast engine should be able to tell you not only what it thinks, but also how much raw enthusiasm it chose not to trust.
— Interpretation

What the approach discounts

Some of the raw number comes from duplicated pathways. Some comes from deadline-fragile stories that look coherent but are structurally weak. The correction layer separates those from genuinely distinct support.

— Purpose

What the approach preserves

The surviving number is the portion that remains persuasive after the system has asked the harder question: how much of this forecast is real signal, and how much is simply eloquent repetition.